Australia’s ruling Labor Party has retaken the lead in opinion polls, pushing the insurgent right-wing One Nation party into second place. A Newspoll survey of 1,235 voters showed Labor at 29% support, its highest this year, while One Nation fell to 29% and the Liberal-National coalition dropped to a historic low of 17%. A separate poll for the Australian Financial Review confirmed a similar trend, with Labor narrowly ahead. The results mark a shift after One Nation’s months-long surge, which had seen it win its best state election result in March and its first federal lower house seat in May.
One Nation’s rise has come almost entirely at the expense of the traditional conservative coalition, which continues to plummet despite changing its leader in February. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was the preferred leader for nearly half of respondents, far ahead of One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and coalition leader Angus Taylor. The government’s support may have been bolstered by its housing affordability legislation, which passed parliament last week and aims to help younger Australians buy homes. The poll, conducted with a 3% margin of error, indicated that many One Nation supporters feel the party understands their frustrations—over a third cited “people like me” as their top criterion, far more than any other group.
The government is now trying to tap into that discontent, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledging that “the status quo is not working for people.” Chalmers argued that global and generational pressures are intensifying, and the government is choosing to address them with real change rather than dismiss them. This signals a strategic pivot to reclaim voters who feel left behind, even as One Nation continues to resonate with those seeking a voice for their grievances. What to watch next: whether Labor can sustain its lead by delivering on economic and social reforms, or if One Nation will regain momentum as cost-of-living pressures persist.
Key Takeaways
- Labor has retaken the poll lead as One Nation’s surge stalls, but the coalition continues to bleed support to the right.
- One Nation’s appeal is driven by voters who feel the party understands their frustrations, a sentiment Labor is now trying to address.
- The government’s housing affordability legislation may have boosted its standing among younger Australians.
- Prime Minister Albanese remains the preferred leader by a wide margin, giving Labor a key advantage heading into future elections.
Insights & Analysis
- Labor’s strategy of acknowledging systemic discontent while offering concrete policy solutions could peel away moderate One Nation voters, but risks alienating its progressive base if reforms are seen as too centrist.
- The coalition’s continued decline suggests a realignment of Australian politics, with the right-wing vote consolidating around One Nation and forcing the Liberals to either shift further right or risk irrelevance.