Briefing

Hormuz Crisis Exposed Fragile Balance in Jet Fuel Markets

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**The brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz exposed a fragile and concentrated jet fuel supply chain, with Asia and Europe most at risk.** The strait handles roughly 20% of global jet fuel trade, and any sustained disruption would immediately spike prices and strain airline operations. Refineries in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are the primary suppliers to these regions, leaving little buffer capacity elsewhere. **The vulnerability is not just about oil supply, but specifically about the refined product that keeps global aviation aloft.**</p><p class="summary-lead">**The analysis reveals that jet fuel inventories outside the Middle East are dangerously low relative to historical norms.** Major hubs like Singapore and Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp rely on just-in-time deliveries from Gulf refineries. A two-week closure would force airlines to ration fuel, cancel long-haul flights, and reroute through less efficient hubs. **This is a systemic risk that most contingency plans fail to address adequately.**</p><p class="summary-lead">**The implications extend beyond immediate price spikes to long-term strategic shifts in fuel sourcing.** Airlines and refiners are now accelerating investments in alternative supply routes, including expanding storage capacity in non-Gulf locations. Governments are likely to reconsider strategic petroleum reserves to include jet fuel specifically. **What to watch next:** whether the International Energy Agency or major consuming nations announce coordinated jet fuel stockpile requirements or emergency-sharing agreements.
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