Oil tankers continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz, but a growing number of owners are turning off their transponders or avoiding the route altogether after two recent attacks. The US confirmed Iran struck an oil tanker on Saturday, days after a container ship was hit by a projectile near Oman's coast. While US-assisted navigation continues, traffic has dipped slightly as five tanker owners privately admitted they now deem the passage less safe. A Saudi supertanker and three bulk carriers appeared in the Gulf of Oman with their signals off, suggesting they slipped through undetected.
The risk appetite of tanker companies and their crews is now the critical variable for restoring normal oil flows and unlocking millions of barrels of supply. The US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks during peace negotiations, offering a fragile window of safety. Yet the Joint Maritime Information Center has raised its threat level to "substantial," and the International Maritime Organization warns that around 80 mines remain in the main transit corridor. Two competing routes have emerged—one in Iranian waters and another near Oman recommended by Western navies—but Iran insists ships cannot pass without its permission.
Inbound traffic is the key metric to watch, as empty tankers must reach Persian Gulf terminals to restart production after months of shut-ins. Two laden VLCCs and a Qatar-owned gas carrier that abandoned crossings have not made fresh attempts. However, a Norwegian products tanker, a US-sanctioned tanker, and an LPG carrier entered the Gulf after the latest attack, while outbound flows included a products tanker and another sanctioned crude carrier. Some vessels now avoid signaling until they reach their loading terminals, making the true scale of traffic increasingly opaque.
What to watch next: Whether the Saudi supertanker's departure from Ras Tanura triggers a wave of similar shipments, and if the number of vessels transiting with transponders off continues to rise—signaling that owners are prioritizing cargo movement over transparency.
Key Takeaways
- Tanker owners are increasingly turning off transponders or avoiding the Strait of Hormuz after two recent attacks, threatening oil supply stability.
- The US and Iran's temporary ceasefire offers a narrow window for safe passage, but mines and heightened threat levels persist.
- Inbound empty tankers are the critical bottleneck for restarting Persian Gulf oil production after months of shut-ins.
- Saudi Arabia's first post-ceasefire supertanker departure from Ras Tanura signals potential resumption of large-scale exports.
Insights & Analysis
- The real risk to global oil markets is not a full blockade but a slow erosion of shipping confidence, which could reduce effective throughput without any formal closure.
- Iran's insistence on permission-based transit and the presence of mines create a de facto two-tier system: compliant vessels risk delays, while non-compliant ones face military escalation.