‘Super’ El Niño Risks Rise as Pacific Ocean Heat Soars

**Exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are raising the risk of a record-breaking 'super' El Niño by late 2023.** Sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region have reached 29.4°C, or 1.7°C above the 30-year average—the largest June deviation since 1981. The US Climate Prediction Center now estimates an 89% chance of a strong El Niño by December and a 62% chance of a very strong, or 'super,' event.</p><p class="summary-lead">**The rapid intensification from La Niña conditions earlier this year is unprecedented, alarming scientists.** Benjamin Horton of City University of Hong Kong notes that while such warm water has been seen before, the speed of the transition has not. This swift warming suggests a major El Niño could develop faster and potentially last longer than typical events, with some models hinting at a duration of up to 24 months.</p><p class="summary-lead">**A strong, long-lived El Niño would almost certainly shatter global temperature records and trigger severe weather extremes.** Horton warns that a minor, short-lived event may not break records, but a major one lasting moderate to long will 'smash them.' The implications include drenching rains in some regions and drought in others, with cascading effects on agriculture, water supplies, and global commodity markets.</p><p class="summary-lead">**What to watch next:** The duration of the El Niño—whether it persists beyond early 2027—will determine the severity of global temperature spikes and weather disruptions.